According to the Agriculture and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, wheat exports totaled 4.11 million tonnes in the current fiscal year, valued at Rs 8,547.58 crore (APEDA). In the previous fiscal year, total wheat exports were only 2.08 million tonnes, valued at Rs 4,033.81 crore.

 

In 2012-13, India exported 6.51 million tonnes of wheat for $10,529 crore, and 5.57 million tonnes of grain for $9,277.65 crore in 2013-14. Earlier this month, the US Department of Agriculture raised its prediction for India's wheat exports this fiscal year to 6.5 million tonnes, noting "high export demand combined with competitive Indian wheat pricing in neighbouring countries."

 

In 2012-13, India earned $10,529 crore from wheat exports, while in 2013-14, it earned $9,277.65 crore from grain exports. Earlier this month, the US Department of Agriculture raised its prediction for India's wheat exports this fiscal year to 6.5 million tonnes, citing "strong export demand combined with competitive Indian wheat pricing in neighbouring nations."

 

According to the International Grains Council, Argentina is currently providing $304 per tonne for upstream river delivery of its wheat, while France is offering $324 for its Grade I wheat (IGC). In the United States, soft red winter wheat is selling for $347 per tonne, while hard red winter wheat is selling for $397 per tonne. The IGC wheat sub-index is up 28% year on year at 295.

 

'India has the advantage because Australia is oversold till March, so any country in the region wishing to buy during this time must look only at India,' Gupta explained.

 

'Even if Australia weren't on the main shipping route, it would have logistical challenges.' 'Ships must depart from the mainline to reach Australia,' said S Chandrasekaran, a trade analyst in New Delhi.

 

Ships transporting wheat to Africa or Southeast Asia can return to India with minerals, coal, or any other product, he pointed out, although this is not the case in Australia.

 

This is one of the reasons why India's wheat exports could reach record highs this fiscal year, and any escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict could help India's wheat exports.

 

India would also gain from the advent of the new wheat crop on the market after March. 'By the end of the first half of this calendar year, no wheat from any other country will have arrived.' 'So India will be the only source of wheat until then,' Gupta remarked.

 

As a result of the record exports, India's ending wheat stocks will be lower at 23 million tonnes, according to the USDA. According to FCI data, wheat stocks were 33.01 mt on January 1 compared to 34.29 mt a year ago. On April 1 of last year, FCI had 27.3 mt of wheat in stock.

 

Aside from exports, the free distribution of 5 kg wheat to people living in poverty until March this year, in order to help them overcome any challenges they may face as a result of the pandemic, has resulted in a fall in stocks. The food grains are distributed through the PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana.