During the second quarter of fiscal 2022, the Export-Import Bank of India (Exim) forecasts India's total merchandise exports to be $98.45 billion, up 33 percent year on year, and non-oil exports to be $85.63 billion, up 28.3 percent year on year (Q2FY22).
The low base effect, the pick-up in growth in advanced nations, and the resulting increase in global import demand are all factors that have contributed to India's export growth. Increases in commodity prices have also contributed to India's export growth.
Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by India Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first week of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters. The forecasts are based on India Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) Model, which has shown an upward movement during the same quarter. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the third quarter, or October-December 2021, would be released during the first week of December 2021.
According to a statement, the model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Saikat Sinha Roy, professor and coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Sarat Dhal, director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; N. R. Bhanumurthy, vice-chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and C. Veeramani, professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.
“As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI "is mainly established as a leading indicator to estimate growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country on a quarterly basis, based on many external and domestic factors that could effect exports of the country," according to the statement.