India's Merchandise Exports are Projected to Increase by 4.9 Percent in the Fourth Quarter

In a survey, the Export-Import Bank of India projected that India's merchandise exports will rise by 4.9 percent in Q4FY21.

According to the survey, total merchandise exports could reach $78.6 billion, representing a 4.9 percent increase.

Non-oil exports are also projected to increase. They could hit $73.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020-21, rising at a rate of 12%.

However, total exports for 2020-21 are predicted to total $279.4 billion, down 10.8% from 2019-20.

Furthermore, non-oil exports are expected to total $256.8 billion in 2019-20, down 5.6% from the previous year.

"The global slump in demand, especially in the transportation and logistics sectors, could be attributed largely to the fall in India's petroleum product exports," the bank said in a statement.

"Non-oil exports from India have remained resilient to the global trade downturn caused by the pandemic. Despite significant disruptions and logistical difficulties, India's exports have remained positive."

The forecast is based on the Export Leading Index (ELI) model of India Exim Bank, which has been trending upward in the same quarter.

In addition, the forecast is published periodically, in the first week of June, September, December, and March for the preceding quarters.

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